The Optimiskeptic - Comments

Anonymous: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

nospam@example.com () — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:35:24 -0500

True, but I did call Indiana on the fence. I think that's half right.

I'm grading myself at 99% right (1 state=2%, and 1 extra % for being half right on Indiana). Although I didn't fully call it, I said it was far more likely than Montana or North Dakota!

But you're right. 2012 won't be much of a match-up either. Unless Hillary Clinton pulls a Joe Lieberman!

Zachariah: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

nospam@example.com (Zachariah) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:11:46 -0500

You called Indiana for McCain. That's not 100% right. Missouri still might swing Obama as well. North Carolina is probably a sure thing for Obama...

Rematch in 2012? I'm going to call this one right now: Obama.

The GOP won't be able to reorganize/recover by then. State by state? Why not... I'm guessing all the same states he wins this time around plus a few more... just like Clinton vs. Dole in '96. lol

Anonymous: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

nospam@example.com () — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:48:50 -0500

To quote myself: "I don't think it'll make it to Nevada. Obama will have 270 before polls are closed in Pacific Time. Obama will take: ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, NH, VT, NY, PA, VA, NC, OH, FL, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, and NM for a EV score of 282. That doesn't even count his wins in WA, OR, ND, CA, (55 EV's!) and HI.

I'd say ND and MT for Obama are still long shots. 538.com gives him a 19% and 14% chance of winning them respectively. That still gives him 367... but even an Obama fan has to be realistic."

So far I was 100% right! The only one up is NC, and I think it'll go to Obama as predicted. To summarize:
Obama -
ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, NH, VT, NY, PA, VA, NC, OH, FL, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, NM, HI, CA, WA, OR
McCain -
WV, KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, MS, GA, LA, AR, MO, OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK, IN

Then again, I DID read a lot of polls. I was checking out 538 multiple times a day...

Rematch in 2012, buddy???

Aaron Leeper: Final 2008 Election Predictions (Nevada decides)

nospam@example.com (Aaron Leeper) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 04:01:27 -0500

Ah, what the hell. I put my thoughts on fb, but I'll drop them here too.

I don't think it'll make it to Nevada. Obama will have 270 before polls are closed in Pacific Time. Obama will take: ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, NH, VT, NY, PA, VA, NC, OH, FL, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, and NM for a EV score of 282. That doesn't even count his wins in WA, OR, ND, CA, (55 EV's!) and HI.

I'd say ND and MT for Obama are still long shots. 538.com gives him a 19% and 14% chance of winning them respectively. That still gives him 367... but even an Obama fan has to be realistic.

If you're counting ND and MT purely to have a possible surprise, then I'd say they're probably two of the most likely candidates. Although Indiana and (gasp) Arizona are moving his way, or at least they have been this week.

Then again, there's still 6 full days until the election. Obama could always make some kind of crazy gaffe like claim the legacy of Josef Stalin and lose 3 or 4 states... ;D

Josh: "you're _ and I'm _"

nospam@example.com (Josh) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:58:41 -0400

I like your note Zachariah, but be careful not to promote colorblindness we need to embrace each others differences and there are differences. Don't forget who you are either because we need to understand our own culture and what it means to be white. We need to repent from certain things and embrace certain things. I know where your coming from though. I think we have both seen a lot of the world and we both can see the huge similarities in people, but God loves culture and has created these differences to be praise and embrace not neglected. I totally agree though that the statement is a very dangerous statement. It's already hard enough to overcome the temptation to unite, but that statement when used outside of a joking intimate atmosphere can give excuses to the desire to not relate.

The Optimiskeptic - Comments

Anonymous: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

Zachariah: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

Anonymous: Stats vs. Intuition: How Well Did I Predict The Election?

Aaron Leeper: Final 2008 Election Predictions (Nevada decides)

Josh: "you're _____ and I'm _____"

Josh: "you're _ and I'm _"